What is the actual future of the EV and LFP battery market in Bangladesh?
Luxury EVs cost a lot. If a person in Bangladesh can afford that much money and they are given the option to choose between EVs and fossil fuel cars, they would surely go for a Luxury fuel car, mainly because of a lack of infrastructure.
And infrastructure and EVs are a Chicken-egg problem. You need one to get another.
I don't see any company would invest that much money on EV infrastructure unless government proactively wants it.
Why would the government want EV infrastructure now? NDC 2030?
Hmm...
Did we pass the mark for renewable energy commitment?
Nope.
So, EV infrastructure would be slow.
What about affordable EVs?
Affordable EVs are not possible unless anyone goes for mass production. Mass production needs to sell at least 100,000 units to be competitive. Is there any market in Bangladesh to sell 100,000 per year?
Nope. It will take at least 3-4 years to reach that market. Till then, It's a loss project.
High inflation, high-interest rates would bankrupt that mass producer before 3-4 years.
Lithium Battery: Li-on or LFP is not popular in Bangladesh Because of significant upfront investment. As per capita GDP is below $3k, people don't have that buying power yet.
Few IPS, EVs, 3-Wheeler, or BTS might buy those, but what is the actual market size in BD?
I Don't think it's more than a few hundred Million USD.
There is a market for ESS, but that market will surge if the electricity price is high. However, government Won't allow increasing that much in price. They might increase gradually, but still, it's at least five years.
If smartphone manufacturers buy Batteries, I don't think it is still a good market at this moment.
And how much it costs to actually "manufacture" Li-on cells? A lot.
How could we be optimistic?
Well, people should start small and plan to survive for 3-4 years! They should mainly focus on building R&D capability, creating local backward linkage, and connecting the dots.
The future is bright, but see, It's Bangladesh, and it ranks 168 in the doing business index.
Creating an innovative business is like moving a mountain alone.